Ford deserves more than double views. F shares rise as prospects race past quick insights.

Ford engine (F) gave a robust outlook for 2024 late Tuesday after posting much stronger-than-hoped gains for a fourth quarter marred by the auto workers’ strike. Ford shares spiked in the premarket on Wednesday, looking for an early entry.


Ford earnings

Estimates: Analysts on average expected earnings per share to fall 73% to 12 cents, according to FactSet. Revenue fell 2% year over year to $43.062 billion.

The United Auto Workers strike against Ford, General engines (GM) and Stellantis (STLA) ended on October 30, when the auto giants made expensive concessions.

ResultsFord’s profit of 29 cents per share, down 43% and the first decline in five quarters, was more than double the 12 cents analysts expected. Revenue of $46 billion, up 4% and also above views.

Ford Blue, the company’s gas and hybrid car division, posted fourth-quarter earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of $813 million.

Ford Model e, its all-electric vehicle unit, lost $1.57 billion this quarter, “due to a highly competitive pricing environment,” according to the earnings release.

Ford Pro, its commercial vehicle unit, produced EBIT of $1.811 billion in the quarter.

The automaker announced regular and additional dividends for the first quarter of 15 and 18 cents per share, respectively.

OutlookThe automaker late Tuesday forecast full-year 2024 adjusted EBIT of $10 billion-$12 billion, with a midpoint of $11 billion well above the FactSet consensus of $9.650 billion. It also forecasts free cash flow (FCF) above consensus of $6 billion to $7 billion.

Archrival GM on Jan. 30 offered a bullish outlook.

Ford Stock Performance

Shares of Ford Motor rose 5.9% to 12.78 in early stock market trading today. F shares rose 4.3% on Tuesday.

Ford shares are hitting resistance at their 200-day moving average after returning to the 50-day line in late January. The post-earnings rally signals a possible return above the 200-day line on Wednesday, which could mark an early entry for risk-tolerant investors.

GM stock and STLA stock posted gains in the 1%-2% range on Tuesday. Stellantis reports for the fourth quarter on February 15.

Toyota shares spiked 7.8%. Toyota engine (TM) on Tuesday forecast record profits of $30.3 billion for the fiscal year ending in March, thanks to higher global sales of hybrid vehicles. The move put TM stock nearly 14% above its 194.43 buy point after a breakout in January.

Shares of Tesla staged a modest recovery on Tuesday, still near multi-month lows.

Hybrid EVs are rising, battery EVs are slowing

Older automakers continue to scale back their big bets on “pure” or battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). They report growing demand for hybrid vehicles, while BEV sales growth has slowed across the sector.

In January, Ford’s hybrid EV sales continued to drive overall new vehicle sales, continuing the momentum from the last quarter of 2023.

Amid record hybrid sales, Ford’s 2023 sales totaled 1,995,912 vehicles – up 7% from 2022 and the best since 2020, with a slight gain in the fourth quarter despite the strike. Combustion vehicles still accounted for 90% of total sales in 2023.

While many customers are interested in buying BEVs, they are unwilling to pay premiums for them over gasoline or hybrid vehicles, industry observers say. That has hurt BEV prices and profitability, Ford said.

GM is now bringing back hybrid vehicles, to cover its previous push for fully electric vehicles.


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